Data-free Inference of Uncertain Parameters in Chemical Models


We outline the use of a data-free inference procedure for estimation of uncertain model parameters for a chemical model of methane-air ignition. The method involves a nested pair of Markov chains, exploring both the data and parametric spaces, to discover a pooled joint posterior consistent with available information. We describe the highlights of the method, and detail its particular implementation in the system at hand. We examine the performance of the procedure, focusing on the robustness and convergence of the estimated joint parameter posterior with increasing number of data chain samples. We also comment on comparisons of this posterior with the missing reference posterior density.

International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification